Forecast Surplus: A Carrot

Yesterday’s announcement by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty that the government was predicting a $3.7 billion dollar surplus by 2015 was a good attempt at shifting the focus from all the less than positive media attention that has been recently directed toward Stephen Harper’s administration. Considering the wide-ranging variables that can impact government financial forecasts, it is somewhat premature to attach too much credibility to that figure. With many analysts adhering to the expression that any similarity between a financial forecast and an actual bottom line merely coincidental, few people will plan on spending what is really a guesstimate. It doesn’t stop the government however from dangling a carrot to distract and perhaps from part of an election strategy.